Financial Astrology for Successful Investor and Trading

RED ALERTweekend markets until next week

We start today [6/11] with initial short positions in the market, sell bonds and buy put and VIX options.

We believe that by June 24, inflation concerns will be even more evident.

@tafund 6/14

Markers: TNX 1.44 VIX 15.55 DJ 34600 SP 4244 NAS 14031

Buy an extra pair of merchant diapers!

To come up yellow Orange & red market days:

KEY DATES: June 13-17, 22 24 25-28

Sell ​​in June? Sell ​​in August?

Correction odds in June 71% in August 84%

Bear market in June 50% August 65%

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There is little REALITY in today’s markets BUT over the next two weeks inflation watchers might stop believing in the ‘temporary’ fairy tale story, a swan event and / or Robinhooders might learn that trees don’t grow skyward. We don’t bet today’s pyramid games will continue – see above.

The trigger ?

• Bitcoin crashes (broken 30K support, which sooner or later) would.
• Another landmine would be TNX at 2 = 20% Nasdaq correction.
• In addition to the “I” word inflation well above 2%, the dreaded “T” word – not the trillion dollar infrastructure package but TAXES !!!
• A shift in perspective – compared to last month or last year, but a longer time horizon leaves little benefit to analysts’ projections.
• EDF warning of a change of course (degression, willingness to act IF inflation is NOT temporary), or perhaps even suggesting that they discuss degressivity rather than a simple loss of credibility!

I am not willing to buy at today’s prices, especially SPX> 4000: Current market the increase remains limited in the short term.

Outside of day trading and special situations, we plan to sell / short and buy if / when the markets are 10-20% lower.

PIVOTS 2020 Close 10% – November 3

DJI 34600 30606 31581 27480

SPX 4244 3756 3825 3369

NAS 14031 12888 12789 11160

ACT BEFORE THE MARKET REVERSE

Inflation is now over 4% and I don’t think it’s just “temporary”.

Given the very high market valuations, we do not see enough FUNDAMENTAL elements (Fed hosting, vaccines and stimulus packages) to justify the benefits of the SP500.

Our recommendation continues to be maximum portfolio protection.

TSLA, BTC, VIX, GME and TNX are our five “canaries in the coal mine” markets:

When three or more canaries are singing, be ready to head for the hills (and / or your nearest bar) .

TNX:> 1.50-1.75

TSLA:

VIX:> 22-26

BTC:

GME: *

* Gamestop and stocks such as AMC [>10] or COIN [>225] are like Bitcoin, their trading has little or no relevance to reality.

Unless verifying the reality that the Emperor does NOT have clothes, beginners learning that not all stocks go up ALL the time can also time market highs (June and / or August).

TRADERS SHOULD DO QUICK DAY SHOPS OR HAVE VERY DEEP POCKETS

• After hard rallies or market declines, it makes sense to record profits.
• The current odds of a market falling from the coming week are over 65% and we will continue to bypass rallies.

Commodity trading:

Gold Buy on dips Rinse and repeat Last purchase 1870

Money Buy on dips

Copper Watch +/- 4.50

Sale / distribution of petroleum> 70

KEY DATES: June 13-17, 22 24 25-28

DJIA: Pivot 34500 S1 34000

SPX: 4250 PIVOT / Resistance S1 4226

NASDAQ: 14000 PIVOT S1 13800

GOLD: 1880 PIVOT R1 1902 R2 1925

SILVER: R1 28 R2 30 R3 33

OIL: 70 PIVOT S1 66 R1 72

COPPER: 4.50 PIVOT0

US 10 years: 1.50 PIVOT R1 1.75

DXY: 90 S1 88 R1 92

VIX: 18 PIVOT R1 22 R2 26 S1 16

BTC: 38K PIVOT S1 33K S2 30K S3 24K

CLOSING 2020: DJIA 30606 SPX 3756 and NASDAQ 12888

CLOSING 2019: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 and NASDAQ 8823

CLOSING 2018: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635

AFUND Fair value GOLD $ 1,825

Reduce risk and focus on preserving capital:

THINK TRADITIONAL SWITZERLAND AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT YOURSELF AGAINST DOWNWARD RISKS.

2. Here is my Ursine market outlook for the next 12-18 months

We continue to see a shift from investments that have benefited from the pandemic and bottlenecks – such as technology, stocks and healthcare bonds – to investments that will benefit from a slow but continuing recovery – such as resources, commodities. industries, infrastructure, tourism actions and finance.

Many analysts recommend adding investments that may benefit from higher inflation, such as energy, gold, tips, utilities, Art / Blue Chip collectibles, and real estate.

Make a list of stocks to buy AFTER a 20% correction. you

SELL / STOP STOCKS you wouldn’t buy at current prices, buy September puts, write covered calls, and reduce margin / increase cash levels.

If it’s not coming in the next couple of weeks then we’ll stay very liquid and wait for the music to stop. [August?] or Godot to arrive, whichever comes first.

Outside of special situations, in the short term, we plan to add stocks only VERY selectively, primarily in two of our favorite sectors – metals and mining and entertainment.

Preferred sectors in H2 2021:

Entertainment, Mining & Technology [AFTER a 20% correction if Undervalued & Highly Scalable]

Currently, we are also observing some To select Health care (lower costs / better results, Energy and investment in difficulty for the third quarter of 2021.

Note: With oil above $ 70 we are now reducing / hedging energy bets.

Stock selection is important. Where possible, we prefer to invest in stocks with strong cash flow, healthy balance sheets and growing dividends.

Pick your favorite stocks and patiently bid for them.

3. Since novice gold and silver investors have limited knowledge of the industry and many are used to technological valuations, is there an upper limit for the price of gold or gold? silver ? Maybe not!

When Bitcoin meets reality, it is likely to usher in a quick source of many new gold investors.

Conservative investors would accept $ 2,200-2,300, while the more aggressive gold and silver insects have gold targets of 2500-3000+; silver $ 35 to $ 50 +.

Silver Fair Value $ 27.50 $ 25 Support and $ 30 Air Resistance.

There are many good buys in the precious metals space depending on your timing and risk / reward desires.

Gold: Basically, the global political and economic situation is very favorable for precious metals.

Precious metals remain the preferred sections. Many generalist investors now have some interest in metals and mining.

In addition, it is under-allocated by most investment programs, this gives it even more leeway, especially as inflationary fears resurface and / or if the US dollar weakens!

From where, we recommend a full and overweight allocation of the precious metals portfolio.

However, we advise long-term precious metals investors to pay attention to security selection as well.

Gold remains a cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.

For investors who are unable or unwilling to buy the US $ currency as well as investors who wish to safely and affordably hedge their US $ exposure,ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

Again, someinvestors hedge record prices for stocks by buying gold.

Low real interest rates are positive for gold, as well as low global bond yields make gold an attractive risk-mitigating alternative hedge.

We expect precious metals stocks to outperform physical gold and silver in 2021.

Gold FV 1825 $ = Commodity FV: 1668 + Currency FV: 1800+ Inflation Metal FV: 1800 + Crisis FV: 2040

INVESTORS: We will remain LONG in H2 2021 both as an investment and as a portfolio hedge despite short-term seasonal summer trends.

4. Seasoned Viewer Choice for June: none

Most are high risk / high reward market choices which we believe are potentially very rewarding and / or worth watching.

Many choices are best for speculative portfolio allocation and as such purchased as a member of a group of 5-10 of these stocks.

Remember NOT to ignore the high potential risk, i.e. using a speculative allocation i.e. “money you can afford to lose without changing your mode.” of life “.

Always do your due diligence before deciding to act.

5. “Is inflation transient or something more structural? Will the Fed lose control of it on the road and make a policy error without having the capacity to bring it under control? “

Steven Oh, Global Head of Credit and Fixed Income, PineBridge Investments

HW: What worries me?

“There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life. But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.”

Bryan Koslow, Director, Clarus Group

HW: That last comment might be true, but imagine how high the prices would be if there was inflation according to the Fed!

“You kind of get this idea that concerns about inflation among the investor base may have peaked.”

Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist, Baird

HW: Say what?